Selling out the UK’s fishermen could see Labour MP-free zones around our coast at the next election
The seats of 87 Labour MPs have some sea frontage – We reveal all
[NOTE: The UK Fisheries Campaign is non-partisan. What follows simply reflects the reality of a Labour Prime Minister agreeing to a demand from the EU that has been universally condemned by all fishermen we know.]
Fishermen all around the country are still reeling from Sir Keir Starmer’s shock announcement at his ‘EU Reset summit’ on Monday. It was the only deal in the entire ‘Common Understanding’ text with a number attached – 12 more years of what fishermen thought was ending next year.
“12 more years of this?” said one fisherman we spoke to on Monday. “It’s obvious. He wants to kill off the industry.”
It is not only fishermen who are up in arms. Members of the public living far from the sea are outraged, seeing our tradition as a maritime country with a strong fishing fleet as being part of the culture and heritage of the United Kingdom.
The politics of fishing
In recent weeks the UK Fisheries Campaign has been researching MPs whose constituencies are directly connected with the fishing industry, through fishing ports or because of fish processing facilities, auction houses, or refridgerated depots. We also looked at all constituencies with sea frontage. Each had to be independently verified using maps and satellite imagery as no official records exist.
Given the tsunami that hit on Monday with Sir Keir’s announcement, we accelerated this research and today we can show readers an interesting map and some worrying statistics for 87 of Sir Keir’s MPs.
Firstly, here is the official text on the astonishing EU demand which Sir Keir agreed to on Monday:
“We note the political agreements leading to full reciprocal access to waters to fish until 30 June 2038”.
Just 15 words and a date is all it took to condemn our fishermen’s future.
Constituencies with sea frontage and a Labour MP
Constituencies with some sea frontage : 165
Of which, Labour MPs : 87
Map of our ‘Red Sea Wall’ seats
Firstly we look at Sir Keir’s party as it is represented around the UK’s shores. At this stage we don’t know how each of these 87 Labour MPs feel about the deal that was announced, as none of them will have been aware of it in advance. Below is a map showing how widely spread these MPs are around the country.
It is also the case that feelings about the fishing industry will be stronger in some areas than in others. All the analysis that follows should be read with these caveats in mind.
How vulnerable are these Labour MPs?
We looked at the majorities these MPs enjoy – something which they will doubtless have in their minds if they wish to be re-elected. Below is a table of the most vulnerable of Sir Keir’s MPs to a backlash over his fishing sell-out to Brussels. There are 20 with majorities of less than 3,500. Given the current national polling, together with the strong feelings about the Prime Minister’s last minute agreement to the demands from the French for a 12-year extension to the current arrangements instead of these coming to an end next June, it is our opinion that these MPs are highly unlikely to keep their seats at the next election, the way things stand.
The only glimmer of hope for these highly vulnerable MPs
If these Labour MPs were to come out strongly against the deal which the Leader of their party has agreed with Brussels, if they were to vote against it at every opportunity, if they were to give interviews to their local papers expressing their opposition, and if they place this opposition on record with us, the UK Fisheries Campaign, then they may have a chance of being re-elected in 2028 or 2029.
What are the chances Sir Keir will have a revolt on his hands from his own MPs?
The UK Fisheries Campaign is very interested to know if all these Labour MPs support Sir Keir’s new fishing deal – are you?
We would like to survey all 87 MPs to ask them if they support this shock new fishing deal the PM has agreed. This will take a lot of work, because MPs are usually reluctant to speak freely on such a controversial topic and in any case they are always hard to get hold of, as we know from experience. This is one of the many tasks ahaed of us if we are going to take on and defeat the current deal before it is drafted. Let’s not forget that this is only a deal in principle and it’s not yet set in stone. Will you help to fund this and similar actions we are planning in support of our fishing industry?
Sir Keir’s new fishing sell-out has not yet been drafted – There’s time to stop it
We need your help to enable us to carry on our vital work. Our emphasis now is on fighting this deal to see it never makes it to the statute book. We have political support (MPs, MSPs, former Ministers), we have media support (GB News, The Daily Express, Fishing News), now we need your support.
Please become a Member now or at the very least please make a one-off donation
Thank you.
Some interesting facts
- 86% of of the 87 constituencies were Labour gains, i.e. they replaced an MP from another party.
- Only 28 of the 87 were re-elected having been the MP before the 2024 election.
- 35 Labour MPs had majorities of less than 5,000 votes – the lowest got in by just 18 votes
- 55 Labour MPs had majorities of less than 7,500 votes
What would the political coastline look like if Labour MPs with majorities of less than 7,500 votes lost their seats?
In our table above we showed the 20 most vulnerable Labour MPs to losing their seats at the next election. This happened to involve those with majorities of under 3,500. What would happen if we extended this and looked at Labour coastal MPs with majorities under 7,500? We punched the numbers to find out, and this time we are showing the results graphically on the map.
Below is a side-by-side comparison of the picture today and what it might look like after the next election
Labour seats currently
(Up-to-date)
Labour seats if majorities
of 7,500 or less were lost
Naturally these figures must be treated with caution, as it is impossible to say for sure what impact the decision on giving the EU access to the UK’s waters for another 12 years will have on voters. Nevertheless, given Reform’s large surge and Labour’s loss in popularity across the board before Monday’s fishing sell-out was announced, it seemed reasonable to look at potential losses of Labour MPs with majorities of 7,500 or less at the 2024 election.
As can be seen, the picture for Sir Keir Starmer is not a pretty one.
The overall spread between the parties on seats with coastal involvement
Finally, back to the present day. For completeness, here is the overall picture for all the coastal constituencies around the UK.
- Labour : 87
- Conservative : 33
- Lib Dem : 21
- SNP : 7
- Plaid Cymru : 4
- Reform UK : 3
- DUP : 3
- Sinn Fein : 3
- SDLP : 1
- Green : 1
- Ind : 2
The public seem to be on the side of the fishermen
At the UK Fisheries Campaign we felt the public’s support for fishermen very strongly after our Chairman’s appearance on GB News on Sunday, the day before Sir Keir’s Summit. Following the interview we were flooded with messages of support from all over the country, with many GB viewers joining the Campaign.
A small selection of the messages we received from GB News viewers after the interview below
“People need to be told the full truth about everything involved within this deal. Yet again, our government is being weak and sucking up to the EU rather than putting the coastal communities first. Good luck with your campaign and keep up the good fight.”
“You have my backing 100%. It just isn’t right when your own government doesn’t back you fishermen. Good luck.xx”
“Our coastal towns are dying – no fishing boats and no tourists as there is no money”
“I am absolutely furious that Kier Starmer has taken it upon himself to sell out the UK fishing rights to the EU. What right does he have. Clearly this is like him giving away Chagos Islands. He should not be allowed to do these things. Clearly it’s an arrogant act of he thinks he knows best and it’s an ego trip. Heaven knows how the fishermen feel. Please prevent this happening. Thank you. S”
“Good luck with your campaign. My daughter in law’s father has a fishing boat out of Brixham. Whilst the fishing community is not the largest in UK commerce it is a strategically important food source.”